The Los Angeles Rams made a savvy trade at the beginning of the season, acquiring Kevin Dotson for a nominal cost. However, retaining the breakout lineman for the 2024 season could demand a substantial investment. Dotson, set to become a free agent, is unlikely to receive the franchise tag, necessitating the Rams to negotiate a significant contract to prevent him from exploring other options in the open market. This strategic approach differs from the Rams’ handling of former right guard Austin Corbett, raising questions about the team’s intentions as General Manager Les Snead faces the decision.
Kevin Dotson, drafted in the fourth round in 2020 from Louisiana, previously spent three seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, accumulating 26 starts between 2021 and 2022 and participating in 100% of the team’s snaps in the last season. The Steelers, opting for a different direction after signing Isaac Seumalo in free agency, saw an opportunity to trade Dotson to the Rams. The trade involved the exchange of fifth and sixth-round picks along with Dotson for fourth and fifth-round picks, providing the Rams with added competition at the guard position.
Initially inactive for the first three weeks, Dotson emerged as the full-time right guard from Week 4 onward. Since then, he has consistently started and earned recognition as one of the top guards in the NFL, with impressive grades, including being rated the best by Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Heading into the 2024 season as an unrestricted free agent, Dotson possesses the potential to secure one of the highest-paid guard contracts in the league if teams view his recent performance as indicative of future excellence. The challenge in projecting Dotson’s contract lies in gauging how teams will assess his standout 2023 season and anticipate his contributions in the future. Questions linger about whether his success will continue and how it might translate to other offensive line setups. Notably, just three months ago, the Steelers did not consider him a starter, making his transformation into PFF’s highest-graded guard a notable storyline in his contract negotiations. As the Rams contemplate their approach, the cost of retaining Dotson emerges as a critical factor in shaping their offensive line for the upcoming season.
Something does not add up.
It doesn’t mean PFF is wrong or that PFF is right. It just means that something doesn’t add up. He could have been a bad fit for the Steelers or just a perfect fit for the Rams. He could even play worse next season than he has this season, a rollercoaster that happens all the time in the NFL.
Andrew Norwell was an All-Pro guard for the Panthers in 2017, which he parlayed into a massive five-year, $66.5 million contract with the Jaguars, making him the highest-paid at his position in the league. But Norwell regressed back to average and the deal was considered a massive overpay. This doesn’t mean Dotson is bound to slip back to replacement level, it’s just that any team has to be cautious of a contract year value explosion for any player.
Another complication for projecting Dotson’s value is that there isn’t just like a top tier, middle tier, and bottom tier of guard contracts. There’s really a couple of guys in the stratosphere, a few guys way above the normal, and then a lot of guys who are all over the map in terms of being a bargain or a waste of $5 million.
Take Corbett, for example.
RG Kevin Dotson is playing REALLY good ball. He's been a phenomenal pickup for LA. Big man is fired up after this downfield pancake on the screen TD. pic.twitter.com/MuP2zbYQGH
— Josh Cohen (@JCohen_NFL) November 28, 2023
The Rams got a similar career out of Austin Corbett when they pried him from the Browns only a year after he barely slipped out of the first round. Corbett became a solid starter on the interior of L.A.’s offensive line, but the team opted to go back on the cheap market rather than bid for his services.
Corbett ended up with a three-year, $26.25 million contract with the Panthers, a little over $8 million per season, and he’s been one of the few well-liked players on Carolina’s offensive line.
Is Corbett a bargain or an overpay? Maybe it just depends on the week when you’re asking the Panthers about him. Corbett has been solid, but he’s missed a lot of time with injury this season and his $8 million is not helping Carolina win games. Could the Panthers have spent that money on a position more important than right guard?
While Dotson won’t come close to the $20 million per season of Quenton Nelson and Chris Lindstrom, or go north of $15 million like Zack Martin and Brandon Scherff, he could nuzzle his way into the $8-$10 million per year range at his current trajectory.
Guards who don’t have better resumes, like Alex Capp and Nate Davis, have signed for over $8 million per year recently. Dotson could convince a team to let him tap into the $10 million range, as there are teams that have cap space and certainly a lot of BAD offensive lines.
Will Rams do it?
Not only did L.A. let Corbett walk in 2022, they let David Edwards leave in free agency a year later too.
The Rams didn’t have a lot of money to spend when they let Corbett leave—at least not based on their plan, which turned out to waste a ton of cash on guys like Allen Robinson and a Bobby Wagner rental—so for them, it made more sense to go the cheap route with Coleman Shelton and Bobby Evans, with injuries eventually leading to Oday Aboushi and others filling in.
Not re-signing Corbett proved costly in 2022, but they’ve managed to rebound immediately at the position in 2023 without having to make a huge move.
The only offensive linemen who Snead has cared to re-sign lately, Noteboom and Brian Allen, are now backups and turned out to be burdens on the salary cap. Will that encourage or discourage the Rams from competing to keep Dotson away from offers that could come close to $10 million per season?
The Rams didn’t want to pay Corbett an $8 million contract and he helped them win a Super Bowl. Will they want to pay more than that for Dotson after a 13-game audition?
On the other hand, the Rams do not have any guards in the pipeline at this time.
2022 third round pick Logan Bruss has spent the year on the practice squad. Avila has a job already on the left side. Anchrum wasn’t trusted to start at right guard (and is also a free agent) and Allen probably isn’t going to push Shelton back over any time soon. If the Rams let Dotson go, they will need to replace him again. If there’s any thought to do that in free agency, well, then why wouldn’t they just work to keep Dotson?
At least he’d be the pricey player they know instead of the one who they don’t, which could always turn out to be the next Andrew Norwell.
But these moves never come in a vacuum. Any fan expecting the Rams to keep Dotson at any cost, even if it is a $10 or $12 million salary cap hit in 2025, will have to answer the question, “Who do you cut to keep him?”
Yes, the Rams could have a ton of salary cap space in a couple of years and there are a lot of older stars seemingly nearing the end of their tenures. However, it still means that having an expensive right guard—something that has never been in Snead or McVay’s plan—leads to not having an expensive player at another position. It’s a luxury to pay a guard that much, so if Dotson has moved into the upper echelon of his position, if he convinces just one team to make him an offer he can’t refuse, do the L.A. Rams have that luxury?
We will find out in a few short months. A lot can change in a few short months.
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