Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that front-office personnel from opposing teams are “monitoring” the possibility that the Astros trade star left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez. The 30-year-old is fresh off his second consecutive Cy Young Award finish in the top ten.
It comes as no surprise that opposing clubs are maintaining vigilance over Valdez. He would be a valuable addition to any MLB rotation. In the previous two seasons, he achieved 31 starts, and in 2022, he paced the American League with 201 1/3 innings pitched. In portions of six seasons in the major leagues, Valdez has matched that volume with outstanding results, compiling an ERA of 3.40. In the past three years, he has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine while striking out 23.5 percent of batters confronted and a staggering 63% of the time the ball is spent on the ground.
Given that level of achievement, the Astros’ decision to trade Valdez would pique the interest of numerous clubs. At this time, there are no indications that the Houston front office is actively considering that possibility. At the Winter Meetings, in response to trade rumors concerning third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston general manager Dana Brown categorically rejected the notion, stating that the club is “trying to win here.”
The club could adopt a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the finest pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has suffered some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss approximately half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.
Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is linked to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222M, well above last year’s approximate $180M Opening Day figure. They’re projected exactly at the $237M luxury-tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1M salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically successful season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18M range in 2025. Valdez is on track to reach free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend crucial players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term agreement with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.
While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of requirements on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending space for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a desolate farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.
One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5M salary, so the expense savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could seek to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have sought to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen assistance isn’t far-fetched.
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