Does Nick Saban’s leaving put additional pressure on Kirby Smart, Georgia?: Bulldogs mailbag
ATHENS, Ga. — Full disclosure: This mailbag was filed and ready to print first thing on Thursday. And then … ah, well. No need, however, to rip the whole thing up, so we’ll get to concerns like whether Brock Bowers returned too early, Georgia’s defensive line recruiting, the attrition at defensive back, the lack of havoc and what’s really going on with NIL and the portal.
But first, let’s get to the news of the day (uh, century) and more on what it may mean for Kirby Smart and company:
Is it fair to critique Smart’s record vs Bama? I think the losses in the SEC Championship game this season and 2021 are heavy stains. Alabama was far and away an inferior squad this season. — Trey D.
With Saban gone, it feels like the pressure on Smart to beat Alabama and put UGA at the top increased suddenly. He’s infamously 1-5 vs Bama and Saban. How much more essential will winning in Tuscaloosa be now that Saban is out of the picture? — Paul W.
Pressure? Or relief? It’s strange, in chatting to a few folks in that building after the news broke, there didn’t seem to be any popping of champagne. The main reaction was surprise and absorbing the news like the rest of us. The next was naturally to question what that means for Georgia, and initially, folks seem to be in a wait-and-see attitude on who Alabama hires. But some relief also has to be there, because there’s seemingly no way the next coach can be just as good.
If the game in Indianapolis had gone another way, Smart and others over there may have felt differently, disappointed they never had the chance to finally beat Saban. But because they did beat him and then lost to him one more time, it reaffirms that Saban was the maestro, and having him off the stage is a good thing for Georgia.
So does that mean pressure? Maybe, but is it anything near the pressure that was there pre-2021 to finally get over the hump? Is it even approaching the pressure of maintaining a 29-game winning streak? And Georgia was already going to be preseason No. 1 before this revelation, based on the early rankings. That comes with its own pressure.
But Paul’s point regarding the Alabama game is a solid one. No matter who Alabama hires, the point spread on that game may tilt a bit in Georgia’s direction now. And whoever the new coach is can utilize it as an early opportunity to build credibility with the fan support. But the reverse holds: If Smart can step in and beat Saban’s replacement, then one can picture the takeaways that will produce. That game, Sept. 28 at 7:30 p.m. on ABC, now has significant meaning for The Vibes.
And yet it may not signify very much in the long term. Georgia can afford to lose that game, and probably one more, and still make a 12-team College Football Playoff. Alabama already has demonstrated it can lose a home game and make a four-team field, so surely it could be in a 12-team field. But if the next coach doesn’t make an expanded field, after replacing a coach who made the four-team field eight out of 10 times, the folks in Tuscaloosa will be extremely uneasy.
Smart, on the other hand, has a long runway of credibility. It’s going to take a couple more years of not winning it all for people around here to start exerting pressure again. Who knows, maybe Georgia’s high point was miraculously attained before. Maybe it’ll be too challenging to get back to the top in the era of a bigger SEC and CFP. But for now, it feels like the torch has simply been passed to Smart as the most respected and accomplished coach in the SEC. The pressure, if anything, has been lifted. Smart will never again look to the other sideline and see that guy coaching against him.
It appears that most of the coverage on transfer portal transfers centers on playing time, getting closer to home or finding the ideal “fit” – whether that’s to win championships or get to the NFL. What doesn’t get mentioned as often is NIL. Is that because all schools give essentially the same NIL money or because there is so little transparency with NIL that reporters don’t know if it’s a key factor? — Bill K.
Very often the latter: NIL numbers don’t have to be released, and sources aren’t willing to put it out there because the players and teams would rather it all be about the “right” reasons: fit, going closer to home, etc. That doesn’t mean the decisions are entirely NIL related. Many undoubtedly aren’t, especially when players enhance their playing time or go to a bigger school. Other times it is a huge factor, sometimes the factor.
Let me also pull the curtain back a bit on the reporting part: We do hear NIL figures bandied around. But being told something, frequently on deep background, is far different from reading the real contract and being able to state that Player X is earning X amount of money to go from Team A to Team B.
I do feel secure in claiming, for instance, that Georgia and Alabama are not tossing huge sums of NIL money around because they don’t need to, but certainly, something is involved. And sometimes more has to be shelled out to get a contract done, but it’s part of the reason clubs don’t want anything publicized, because of locker room dynamics and then Player Y getting furious and wanting more money. All that great stuff.
It’s not a fantastic system. But it’s the one we have until a) Congress comes together (ha!) to pass a bipartisan (hahahahaha) bill that the White House signs (hahahahahahahahahahaha), or b) the people who run college athletics decide to institute a system of collective bargaining that allows them to negotiate into effect a system that will stand up in court.
I have been rather shocked how relatively little has been made about Brock Bowers’ decision to return from injury when he did and the appearance that it was probably too soon, thereby hurting him and the team when he was needed the most versus Alabama. A healthy No. 19 might’ve easily made up for that three-point differential. — Larry M.
It’s one of the examples of the college football gods evening things out: For those thinking Georgia only beat Ohio State because Marvin Harrison Jr. got hurt and only beat Alabama because John Mechie and Jameson Williams got hurt, now Georgia fans may argue the Bulldogs didn’t three-peat because Bowers and Ladd McConkey weren’t entirely healthy. (Not to mention Rara Thomas’ being absolutely out.)
But whether Bowers was limited because he came back too soon from the surgery is uncertain. Kirby Smart stated last month that Bowers “probably came back too soon” but didn’t attach that specifically to still being hurt. Bowers did roll his ankle in the Tennessee game, very early in the third quarter. It was probably that more than the ankle’s not being totally healed after the tightrope surgery. Or possibly the combination of the two resulted to soreness.
Hindsight, as you said, is perfect, and maybe Georgia should have let Bowers sit until the SEC championship or let him get his feet wet at Georgia Tech. But Ole Miss was gearing up to be a tough game, and the trip to Tennessee was long looked to as Georgia’s hardest matchup. Plus Georgia had just skated by Missouri in Bowers’ second game out. At the time, there was plenty of justification for Georgia’s staff, when Bowers stated he was ready to play, to agree to those demands.
What’s going on with effectively recruiting talents on the defensive line? Next year looks like the second year in a row when we’ll be OK but not elite. — Anonymous
Georgia has recruited slightly better on the defensive line during the past three years: Between 2019 and 2021, the program signed three five-star players there (Nolan Smith, Travon Walker and Jalen Carter) and four top-250 players (Bill Norton, Nazir Stackhouse, Jonathan Jefferson, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins). Since then, Georgia has signed three five-star players (Mykel Williams, Jordan Hall, Joseph Jonah-Ajonye) and six top-250 players (Bear Alexander, Christen Miller, Jamaal Jarrett, Jordan Thomas, Nasir Johnson, Justin Greene).
But it’s apparent Georgia’s defensive line took a step back last year and isn’t guaranteed to move up this year. So what gives?
Part of it is Georgia enjoyed a particular privilege in having Carter, Walker, Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt together for three years, and Carter by himself in 2023 was special. (When healthy.) But if you look at the other names, you see plenty still around who could blossom into something extraordinary, notably Hall. Williams hasn’t been tremendously impactful at end, so he is transferring to outside linebacker. Alexander may have been a difference-maker but wasn’t a locker room fit and transferred.
Georgia was in it for the best defensive lineman in the 2024 cycle, but Williams Nwaneri (Missouri) stayed home. So did five-star prospect LJ McCray, a Florida native. The top in-state defensive lineman, Eddrick Houston, chose Ohio State in another episode of the Buford curse. (Safety KJ Bolden is a notable exception.) But Georgia did snag a five-star: Jonah-Ajonye, who will play end. And using the 247Sports Composite, Georgia signed four of the top 23 defensive lineman, which is still fairly impressive.
My feeling is Georgia is doing just well on the D-line, it’s just a tiny lag after the heady years of 2019-22, with the possibility to reach back to that level if some things break right.
