The Colorado Avalanche are still getting ready for the offseason as the 2024 Stanley Cup Final is in full swing. Playmaking winger Jonathan Drouin is one of the Avalanche’s nine significant pending free agents who needs a new contract this summer. The other three defenseman and six forwards are all important players.
The 29-year-old, who signed a one-year contract last summer in the hopes of revitalizing a stagnant career, achieved career highs in assists (37) and points (56). Drouin may have earned a sizable increase, but given his past interactions with Nathan MacKinnon, a junior colleague, he may feel pressured to remain in a familiar role that maximizes his skills and minimizes his limitations.
Despite struggling to live up to his high draft status (finishing third overall in 2013), Drouin appears to have established a permanent residence in Colorado. Though his breakthrough makes him a vital component moving ahead, the truth is that uncertainty surrounding the rest of the squad and the forward’s market worth could determine whether he remains or is traded again. Let’s discuss the salary cap situation for the Avalanche in 2024–2025 and the projected compensation that Drouin would fetch as a desirable free agent.
The NHL Salary Cap is expected to keep rising.
For almost five years, the NHL’s wage ceiling increase was halted by the COVID-19 pandemic. After rising by at least $2 million for four seasons in a row, the league was obliged to freeze the upper salary ceiling at $81.5 million for the 2020–21 and 2021–22 seasons due to financial realities brought on by an economic downturn.
The NHL has officially declared that the salary cap for the upcoming season will be $88 million. It is possible that the cap ceiling will reach $92 million before the 2025–2026 season. Since the cap increased by 6% in advance of the 2018–19 season, this increase marks the first increase of 5% or more.
The uncertainty surrounding the long-term futures of captain Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin should contribute to what looks to be a stormy offseason for the Avalanche, aside from the club’s impending free agents.
Landeskog’s lengthy recovery from numerous operations and the accompanying rehabilitation has prevented him from playing since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. In the middle of the team’s second-round playoff series, Nichushkin joined Stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. As a result of breaking the rules of Stage 2, he is currently serving a six-month ban without pay.
In the unlikely event that Landeskog returns sooner than anticipated, the Avalanche will be without two of their best wingers until the middle of November. They will have an additional $13.125 million in cap space as long as they stay out of the picture ($7 million for Landeskog and $6.125 million for Nichushkin). However, they will need to have enough room to activate them should they decide to play again next season.
The Avalanche are expected to have $23.22 million in cap space if Landeskog and Nichushkin miss out, but they will still need to sign or promote at least five forwards and two defenders. That amount drops to almost $10 million for three forwards and two defensemen if both play again the following season.
Whether or not the other two forwards return, the Avalanche will need to rely on prospects from their American Hockey League (AHL) club, therefore it is imperative to retain Drouin in the lineup.
Drouin Anticipates Profits From New Contract
If Drouin re-signs with the Avalanche, we can get an idea of what his next contract would look like using Evolving Hockey’s projections for free agency contracts. Based on past comparisons with factors like age, position, production, and a player’s status as an unrestricted (UFA) or restricted (RFA) free agency, these projections are made.
The estimates provide the average annual value (AAV) and most likely duration (in years) of a free agent’s next deal; however, outside circumstances may influence talks and cause the final terms to differ from the initial estimates.
Drouin will almost certainly get a sizable raise on the $825,000 he made in 2023–24 against the cap, regardless of the exact amount. His next deal might be close to the $5.5 million AAV he earned over six years with the Montreal Canadiens before joining the Avalanche, even though it might be on the extreme end of the curve.
The AAV Probability Term
One $2.44 million8% of $23.94 million6%
$3.46 million28 percent
$4.78 million30%
$5.57 million25%
$6.28 million3%Most likely contract terms for Drouin thanks to Growing Hockey
According to Evolving Hockey’s estimations, Drouin has an 83% chance of agreeing to a three- to five-year contract with an average annual value of $4.66 to $5.57 million. Even if he is qualified to sign a seven- or eight-year contract with the Avalanche, such scenarios have a combined one percent chance of happening, according to the estimates.
The playmaker’s issues with acute anxiety during his time in Montreal have contributed to his underwhelming draft stock, but he seemed rejuvenated during his debut season in Colorado alongside junior teammate MacKinnon. Following MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar in points, he had a strong comeback season, finishing fifth on the club in goals (19) and assists. He was a consistent power play player, averaging over eighteen minutes per game in all situations. He scored nineteen points (tied for fifth most among Avalanche skaters) when he had the man advantage.
The Avalanche’s playoff departure in the second round wasn’t primarily caused by his injury absence, but it’s interesting to consider what could have happened if his comeback hadn’t coincided with Nichushkin’s ban. His three assists and tie for fourth place in the scoring for the series among Avalanche forwards indicate how important he is to the team’s offensive health.
Although Drouin is ranked 15th among free agents by The Hockey Writers, I highly doubt that he and the Avalanche are unable to reach a deal by July 1.
Drouin ought to be one of the Avalanche’s Top Six Players
In any case, remarks made by Drouin’s agent, Allan Walsh, on his podcast suggested that a reunion would be on the horizon. He praised the Avalanche’s organizing capabilities and mentioned how his client felt at ease using them. In the world of sports, nothing is guaranteed, but generally speaking, where there is smoke, there is fire.
Drouin has made up his mind. The Avalanche’s salary cap crisis may force him to pursue a more lucrative agreement elsewhere, or he may choose to remain in a welcoming atmosphere that has helped him succeed both on and off the ice.
Although it’s hard to blame a player for accepting life-altering compensation to provide for their family in an NHL where injuries can strike at any time, the veteran forward appears to be in a playing position that is ideal for him. Can he continue to be a vital member of the Avalanche’s top six forward group and receive a large salary at the same time, thereby having the best of both worlds?
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