Heading into the 2025 season, Alec Burleson once again appeared to be the odd man out for the St. Louis Cardinals.
With the team juggling playing time for several key hitters, Burleson wasn’t projected to be a regular in the lineup—especially after it became clear Nolan Arenado wasn’t going anywhere. Willson Contreras shifting to first base, Nolan Gorman and Luken Baker leading the designated hitter platoon, and Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker locking down the corner outfield spots all pointed to limited opportunities for Burleson.
But in true Burleson fashion, he entered Spring Training with something to prove. He earned a starting role over Gorman on Opening Day and has largely stayed in the lineup since, particularly after catching fire at the plate in May.
While the Cardinals are wisely riding his hot streak for now, Burleson’s emergence raises bigger questions about his future in St. Louis. Has he played his way into the club’s long-term core—and if so, could that make some of his teammates more expendable?
Could Alec Burleson make other members of the Cardinals’ young core expendable?
The Cardinals currently have a surplus of players who primarily fit at first base, designated hitter, or the corner outfield, which raises a key question: Who are they planning to commit to in 2026 and beyond? That brings us to Alec Burleson—should the Cardinals consider selling high on him?
Now, some of you might be thinking, “Why would St. Louis even consider moving on from Burleson?” That’s fair. And to be clear, I’m not suggesting they trade him right now. But he’s a fascinating player in this crowded mix, and it’s not entirely obvious where he fits long term.
So far in 2025, Burleson has impressed. Over 67 games, he’s posted a .308/.346/.464 slash line with eight homers and 30 RBIs—good for a 126 wRC+. And since the start of May, he’s been even better: .338/.369/.568 with all eight of those home runs and a 167 wRC+. It’s a two-month stretch of high-level production, reminiscent of the breakout run he had last summer.
What’s stood out most this season is how well he’s hit left-handed pitching—a clear weakness last year. In a small sample of 39 plate appearances, he’s slashing .297/.333/.486 with a 130 wRC+, a massive improvement over his 43 wRC+ in 2024 against southpaws. That kind of jump makes him a far more versatile and valuable offensive piece.
Burleson’s performance against righties has already been elite. Dating back to the start of 2024, his 125 wRC+ vs. right-handers ranks 10th in MLB among hitters with at least 600 plate appearances in that split—an impressive feat. For comparison, teammate Brendan Donovan is fifth with a 132 wRC+.
From an offensive standpoint, Burleson absolutely deserves a regular spot in the lineup, both now and potentially into the future. While there are some underlying metrics that suggest a potential regression (which did impact him in late 2024), if this current version of Burleson is sustainable, it’s a game-changer for the Cardinals.
However, that lingering uncertainty about his long-term production—paired with his defensive limitations and the roster logjam—makes for an intriguing situation. Is Burleson the guy who pushes others out of the picture? Or does his value peak to the point where the Cardinals look to move him in a deal?
Answering that will help clarify which players—if not Burleson—could ultimately be the ones the team views as expendable.
I want to break down the argument for both sides and then give you my take on where Alec Burleson should stand with the Cardinals long term.
To kick things off, I ran a poll on X over the weekend, and the overwhelming majority of fans voted in favor of Alec Burleson being a key piece of the Cardinals’ long-term core.
Is Burly a part of the #STLCards core or is he a valuable piece to help them acquire something else?
— Josh Jacobs (@joshjaco98) June 21, 2025
Let’s dive into the case for making Alec Burleson a long-term piece of the Cardinals’ core.
As mentioned earlier, Burleson has been a strong offensive contributor this season, and his production against right-handed pitching going back to 2024 has been among the best on the team.
When comparing Burleson’s offensive output since the start of 2024 to other members of the Cardinals’ emerging young core—such as Iván Herrera, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, and Nolan Gorman—Burleson leads the group in home runs and RBIs. He ranks third in slugging percentage, wRC+, and wOBA, fourth in batting average and on-base percentage, but only fifth in fWAR.
That fWAR ranking is where things start to get complicated and reflects the trade-offs the Cardinals need to consider when evaluating who to retain long term. Despite his impressive offensive production—especially against righties and his recent strides against lefties—Burleson’s defensive profile holds him back. He’s a below-average defender in the corner outfield and merely adequate at first base, which means nearly all of his value stems from his bat.
Contrast that with someone like Lars Nootbaar. While Nootbaar has struggled at the plate during a prolonged slump this season, his overall value remains higher. He offers solid defense in the corner outfield, can play center field when needed, and until recently had outperformed Burleson offensively over the last two seasons. Over their careers, Nootbaar still holds the edge in total value.
If Burleson continues hitting at this level and ends the season with a wRC+ around 130 or higher, his trade value and internal standing within the organization will rise significantly. But if his production dips back toward the 115–120 wRC+ range, his overall value becomes more limited, especially when factoring in his defensive shortcomings—even with his years of team control.
In short, the bat is carrying the profile. The question the Cardinals have to ask themselves is whether that’s enough to build around—or if it’s the perfect time to sell high.
“It depends” is such a bad answer, but I think it applies here. How would the league value Burly in a trade? Generally speaking, 1B/DH/Corner OF bats with good but not great power don’t get you a ton.
I think he’s more valuable to STL than elsewhere. https://t.co/bgEtUzcoKI
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) June 21, 2025
I think Brandon Kiley of 101 ESPN summed it up perfectly in a recent tweet: Alec Burleson is probably more valuable to the Cardinals than he would be to another team. And if that’s the case, it raises an important question—does his emergence make another member of the Cardinals’ young core more expendable?
Alec Burleson may squeeze a different member of the Cardinals young core out of their plans.
Next season, the Cardinals are expected to add JJ Wetherholt into the mix, which will only add to the roster crunch. Even if Nolan Arenado is no longer on the team, they’ll be juggling nine players—Wetherholt, Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, and Iván Herrera—across just six positions.
If the Cardinals choose to retain that entire group, Burleson becomes a valuable insurance policy. Should Gorman or Walker still be struggling at the plate come Spring Training 2026, Burleson’s presence gives the team a safety net—someone they already trust to produce, allowing them to gamble a bit more with the upside plays.
Still, it seems more likely that St. Louis will want to clean up the logjam this offseason. Instead of selling low on someone like Walker or Gorman—who both may still have untapped ceilings—the Cardinals might opt to move a more established piece like Nootbaar in order to maximize return.
That’s assuming Nootbaar doesn’t collapse offensively for the rest of the year. If his recent improvement holds and he finishes 2025 as a 115–120 wRC+ bat, his trade value could be substantial. In that scenario, could Burleson’s rise make it easier for the Cardinals to part ways with Nootbaar, especially if they believe players like Donovan and Wetherholt can make up for the OBP and defensive versatility Nootbaar provides?
It’s only June 24, so the Cardinals don’t have to make that decision yet—but it’s clear this situation is getting more complicated by the day. If Burleson’s current level of play holds through the second half—unlike last year when his production tailed off—it becomes increasingly difficult to envision a 2026 lineup that doesn’t feature him prominently.
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