To add to the outfield mix, the Orioles have their right-handed hitter. The first person to report about outfielder Tyler O’Neill’s impending physical signing to a three-year contract worth up to $49.5 million was Jon Heyman of MLB Network on Saturday night. After just one season, O’Neill has the option to terminate the agreement. This is the first time the Orioles have offered a player a contract that included multiple-year guarantees during Mike Elias’ term as general manager. That doesn’t mean O’Neill will want to stay for the full three years. It would be ideal for the O’s if O’Neill performs so well that he leaves after a year.
A few weeks ago, Stacey of Camden Chat detailed O’Neill’s offseason wish list for the Orioles. The argument for O’Neill is quite straightforward because he has had moments of greatness throughout his career, none more so than his 2021 campaign with the Cardinals, in which he recorded an OPS of over.900 with six wins and was awarded a Gold Glove. This past season with the Red Sox, O’Neill wasn’t quite at that level. He batted.241/.336/.511 in 113 games and had defensive metrics that weren’t up to par with his prior reputation. Presumably, he will be dropping into right field, preventing Anthony Santander from being re-signed by the Orioles. Even if O’Neill doesn’t return to the field, Tony Taters wasn’t exactly a defensive genius either.
The extra elements that Oriole Park at Camden Yards will bring could be important to O’Neill. This previous season, he hit 25 of his 31 home runs to left or left-center field. He walked a lot, hit the ball hard, swung the bat quickly, and missed the ball completely a lot (5th percentile whiff rate). Another argument against O’Neill as a signing is that, according to FanGraphs’ rating of the top 50 free agents, O’Neill was ranked 21st in the class:
There are a variety of entirely plausible outcomes for this signing that could easily start to suggest that Elias doesn’t have the ability to identify and sign players who can make a medium-term positive impact with the Orioles. But that’s a lifetime of being an Orioles fan influencing my thinking. This is the first guy who has gotten Elias to step out and spend a little money and that sure points to Elias believing in good things coming from him.
This is a signing that’s a bit above the expected market rate for O’Neill, though not by too much much. FG’s Ben Clemens predicted a deal for three years and $45 million, with MLB Trade Rumors at three years and $42 million. If O’Neill’s a solid Oriole, no one is going to regret the “extra” $4-8 million over the possible length of the deal. If he’s not a good Oriole, fans will not want him here at any price.
One interesting question raised by the signing is: What does this signing mean for Heston Kjerstad? Maybe it doesn’t mean much. If Kjerstad is going to be the strong side of a platoon as either the right fielder or designated hitter, then he’ll play most of the time because most pitchers are righties. That’s another thing where we won’t know what Elias is thinking until he does something to commit one way or another.
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