The St. Louis Cardinals are facing a pivotal decision as the 2025 trade deadline approaches. Hovering around contention, they must choose between pushing for a playoff spot by buying at the deadline or selling off expiring contracts to better position themselves for the future. While both paths have merit, one thing is clear: if they opt to buy, they’ll need to bolster their pitching staff.
One intriguing but questionable scenario was floated by Sports Illustrated’s Nicholas Selbe, who predicted the Cardinals could make a surprise move for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. Though Kelly has never made an All-Star team or received Cy Young consideration, he’s been a steady performer since arriving from the KBO in 2019. His 3.78 ERA since then ranks 14th in MLB (minimum 800 innings), ahead of bigger-name arms like Dylan Cease and Aaron Nola. Kelly also proved his postseason mettle with a 2.25 ERA across four starts during Arizona’s 2023 World Series run.
There’s no denying Kelly would be a strong short-term upgrade, but the move comes with significant drawbacks. At 36 years old and in the final year of his contract, Kelly would be a rental, and acquiring him would cost the Cardinals valuable prospect capital. More importantly, St. Louis already has two other starters—Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde—set to hit free agency this winter. Adding a third expiring deal to that mix would only deepen their offseason uncertainty.
For a team that’s likely still a year or two away from assembling a true championship-caliber roster, the smarter strategy would be to prioritize acquiring pitching talent with long-term control. Controllable arms would not only help in the immediate playoff push but also position the team more securely for sustained success beyond 2025.
Ultimately, while Kelly would be a valuable addition on the mound, the timing and price make him a poor fit for the Cardinals’ current trajectory. The front office would be wise to focus on moves that serve both the present and the future—rather than going all-in on a short-term rental that may not tip the scales far enough this season.
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